North Korea

[bloodlusta]

So heard today on the news that the US may search a North Korean ship bound for Myanmar and if they do North Korea will see it as an act of war.

What do you guys think the US should do?

Also any other thoughts on the North Korean situation

[Steve_TPF]

What they should do depends largely on NK's current capability. If NK has the ability to deliver a strategic nuke anywhere, even South Korea, they should probably let it go. On the other hand, if NK can't actually deliver a nuke, then all efforts should be made to stop them gaining that capability.

A conventional war has risks too, but NK should be contained as much as possible.

[shetlan]

Sneezing while facing NK is considered an act of war these days

1: People are assuming that the ship has conventional weapons on board - which I highly doubt. If there are "weapons" on board, it's a nuclear warhead.

2: Unless they can deliver the nukes to a decent distance, they won't use them at all - Kim Jong-il is crazy, but he's not stupid. Delivering a nuke to South Korea could spread fallout back to NK or even to China - who would promptly kick his sorry ass.

We shouldn't board the ship, we already know what's on board (whether or not we've told the media). If the ship is carrying a warhead, we should blow it up, recover the warhead, and display it for the world - let's see if that gets them ready to take on North Korea.

Secondly, Kim Jong-il isn't stupid, if he had the capability to accurately deliver a nuke to another country, he would have done it by now.

[Steve_TPF]

He might not be stupid, but he may well be crazy. He's also getting old, probably ill, and his actions aren't predictable with any degree of certainty.

But it may be because he's not stupid that he hasn't fired a nuke.

[shetlan]

Originally Posted by Steve_TPF

He might not be stupid, but he may well be crazy. He's also getting old, probably ill, and his actions aren't predictable with any degree of certainty.

But it may be because he's not stupid that he hasn't fired a nuke.

If he had displayed the ability to use a nuclear warhead, we would be keeping our distance.

I believe his son is being groomed to take his place.

[CyberWar]

No man, no problem.

--- Josif Stalin ---

[Steve_TPF]

We know they have nukes. Although it's believed that they can't yet fit one in a missile. It could be delivered by ship, so on that basis I would say definitely stop and search.

[shetlan]

Originally Posted by Steve_TPF

We know they have nukes. Although it's believed that they can't yet fit one in a missile. It could be delivered by ship, so on that basis I would say definitely stop and search.

Well, if there's a nuke on the ship, we already know it's there - we don't really need to check.

I'm guessing that if we try to search the ship, they'll set it off.

If the rest of the world had irefutable proof that they where trying to move a nuke, it would be the end of North Korea.

[Draven]

North Korea is one of the largest rogue nations weapons dealers in the world. Primarily with rocket tech & nuke info, all NK missiles are cheap Russian and Soviet era knock offs. But its better then what most middle eastern countries can afford. More so, North Korea is a war machine they have the largest active army in the world & while China is bigger they have a much smaller military then they can potentally produce if need be.

We won't touch NK because they have a mutual defense pact with China, if we strike first we face them both and if NK strikes first they are on their own. NK wants to provoke us into a fight because that means China will be thrown into war with us. Thats why Bush ignored NK and why Obama is edgy with them...

We can't throw the first punch because of NK's big brother China.

[bloodlusta]

That was a long time ago. No way China would ever stand along side NK these days. China has said this. They even admitted that NK was a major threat to the regions security

[shetlan]

Originally Posted by bloodlusta

That was a long time ago. No way China would ever stand along side NK these days. China has said this. They even admitted that NK was a major threat to the regions security

Lusta's right. The Chinese aren't too comfy with North Korea these days. They've recognized that they let the cat out of the bag - and now the cat has rabies.

[Draven]

We (the USA) can't attack NK without China getting involved & NK/Kin Jung-Il has alway intended to move on South Korea. They never signed anything but a cease-fire and we know how long those last. Beyond that NK has sleeper cells and operatives inside SK and visa-versa.

The Korean War didn't end they just turned down the heat. North Koreas goal has alway been to retake the South & right now NK & China are in a position to gain the most. We can't have troops in Korea, Iraq & Affgahnistan fighting. North Korea knows this and while we are stretched so thin and have a weak military leader (Obama), Jung-Il knows he can push our buttons and we can't do much. China may not want NK to start some shit in South East Asia but they can't afford to lose face by not backing them either if someone else attacks them. Remember China's power is contested in Asia by South Korea, Japan, the Philipines, Taiwan & Hong Kong. They are only contested in the world by the US & Russia. If Kim Jung-Il starts a war in SK and/or Japan it weakens the US forces with help to secure Taiwan & Hong Kong.

When China moves against NK with anything but talk I'll believe it until then I'll assume the Chinese are on NK's side.

[bloodlusta]

China has changed from being such hard line communist. They can't back NK for one simple reason... money. The US buys most of China's goods. Why would they cut themselves off from their main source of income? Don't bite the hand that feeds you.

Also China's only major contester world wide is India. America is going down hill and will not be great again everyone knows that, why do you think everyone is jumping ship and signing with China and india? Over the next 10 years the major powers will be China, India and the EU. America is living on borrowed (literally) time because their debt is just so much.

What has China got to gain from NK taking over SK? They will lose all the trade they get from SK because they know the North will fuck up the South's economy is a matter of years.

[Steve_TPF]

According to South Korea, the ship is carrying small arms and possibly missiles destined for Myanmar. (I hadn't heard of it either.) So the ship itself is no threat. And if NK lacks the capacity to launch a nuke, there's no harm in stopping the ship.

Good point about the economic factors bloodlusta. At this point in time China has more to gain by siding with the US. Who knows, they may OK a surgical strike on NK's nuclear facilities. It seems to be the only way to stop their nuclear development. Sanctions obviously haven't done it.

[Draven]

Originally Posted by bloodlusta

China has changed from being such hard line communist. They can't back NK for one simple reason... money. The US buys most of China's goods. Why would they cut themselves off from their main source of income? Don't bite the hand that feeds you.

Also China's only major contester world wide is India. America is going down hill and will not be great again everyone knows that, why do you think everyone is jumping ship and signing with China and india? Over the next 10 years the major powers will be China, India and the EU. America is living on borrowed (literally) time because their debt is just so much.

What has China got to gain from NK taking over SK? They will lose all the trade they get from SK because they know the North will fuck up the South's economy is a matter of years.

Ah but what would China have to gain from holding onto a failing economy which at best will fail in 5 to 10 and at worst won't make it past 2010. China can crush us with a pen stroke & while the US is the largest consumer of Chinese goods, we aren't the only consumer of Chinese goods; depending on how much and how soon hyperinflation hits us China may decide to cut its losses.

In fact they basicly are by suggesting a global currency which removes the dollars high status and weaknes the US economy with its very existence. The dollar is the worlds default reserve currency for international trade & thats one of the few points keeping the US afloat right now. A global currency would almost surely crash the US economy within 6 months to a year. A unified Korea under Jung-Il is just a bigger attack dog for China & China has a grudge against Japan which NK makes a perfet thorn in their side. If China goes to war who do you think will make up the bulk of China's initial combat forces? China is set to be the new super power and a war would only cement that power faster as the US military is over stretched already.

Also a new Korean war means allot of arms sales and trade with China & additional resources for China and North Korea to make such deals with countries we oppose having such weapons; like Iran, Various factions in the Middle East and their Eastern European Counter Parts.

There is more then one way to look at the same situations & surcomstance; most likely it will be a half & half. But, as I am found of saying the Chinese Mastered the Art of War & deception a few thousand years before the western world caught up. More so, the Chinese were using that concept in business & politics way before we were. So following that model of behavior; China is at war with us & winning that war without the need for direct conflict through the use of deception and manipulation. I don't think NK will attack South Korea as SK has better training and better defenses; but the mere threat of the possibility is enough to make the US lose face in South East Asian; which is another important issue in itself...

[Fayle]

China has changed from being such hard line communist. They can't back NK for one simple reason... money. The US buys most of China's goods. Why would they cut themselves off from their main source of income?

China makes their own goods and the most they get from north America is less then Microsoft makes in a week. We buy from China because their Labor laws are completely different. They are lucky to get 7 cents an hour in those sweat shops. China can and has operated individually without Aid and they still can.

Also China's only major contester world wide is India. America is going down hill and will not be great again everyone knows that, why do you think everyone is jumping ship and signing with China and india? Over the next 10 years the major powers will be China, India and the EU. America is living on borrowed (literally) time because their debt is just so much.

I do hope you realize our debt has been there before America was official. It is just now people SEE the debt. Nothing will change, America is slowly paying off her debt, and we also have countries in debt to us, as well as we are constantly breaking deals and getting our debt cut. This will not be our downfall, the fascism in our corrupted government will. And even then we won't give up without a fight.

Ah but what would China have to gain from holding onto a failing economy which at best will fail in 5 to 10 and at worst won't make it past 2010. China can crush us with a pen stroke & while the US is the largest consumer of Chinese goods, we aren't the only consumer of Chinese goods; depending on how much and how soon hyperinflation hits us China may decide to cut its losses.

The part about the U.S. not being the only consumer is 1000% (yes i put an extra zero) correct. Russia and Japan are major buyers of Chinese goods. Japan gets most of it's resources (sheet metal, dry wall, etc) from china. Russia buys a lot of edible products and metals.
But i do not believe China could just "crush" us in a pin stroke. First off why would we stroke a pin? Second China has a MAJOR military presence, but that size is it's downfall. Resources to attack the United States would exceed what they can provide and troops would begin to question authority for China. If that didn't happen the United States Defense system has gained ground and exceeded technological advancement predictions that we foresaw ten years ago. We thought in the nineties that we just now would be able to fire a rocket and take out a fighter jet accurately without submission. But we now have missiles that can target themselves, missiles with acid sprays, EMP missiles, missiles that can fire turrets and separate rockets, and missiles that can take out an enemy from across the globe three times. Our technology is much more advanced then the chinese. Coming down to it, everything depends on how it would be fought. Man to man would be China's win. Using missiles, naval bases, and air bases the U.S. would win.

Also you say the U.S. is over stretching their military. But how much of our troops are actually deployed? My cousin is in the technological and electronic division of the CIA, and by what he could tell me (classified annoys the shit out of me) we have enough troops in our reserves and not on duty but are active to cover ever U.S. base seven times. That is a lot of troops. We would easily have enough to attack china, but as i said the best way of defeating China in a Chinese War is using technology.

China has been at this standpoint for fifteen years of not moving in the timeline. Their technology is minimal at best. They probably have NATO rockets but that would be it. And it is not hard to detect anti-aircraft NATO rockets.



You do seem to not realize why we are searching the vessel. North Korea announced a plan to send a nuclear warhead to hawaii within the next three months. We are being over-protective and making sure we can eliminate all threats before they happen. We can take down a Nuclear warhead over the ocean if it is from North Korea. But if it is closer or from one of our bases who knows what could happen. We need to stay on the Offensive to keep the U.S. running at full capacity.

[FerretBone]

NK desperately wants the world to believe they can be a serious threat if someone started a war with them. They say any little fart will be viewed as an act of war against them. All awhile their firing missiles over Japan, and into the ocean just about every time the world mentions their name.
But they only do this while it's safe. Ever notice how unusually quiet they were right after 9-11? Or how quiet they were before the invasion of Afghan and Iraq?
NK is just kicking up as much dust into the air as they can to look dangerous. Like a small animal does when faced by a larger one. The more dust they kick the more they show us what we already knew. How shitty their so called dangerous weapons really are. Rockets that break apart in the lower atmosphere, missiles that nose dived into the ocean, nuclear weapons that they anticipated to fail so was detonated under ground.

NK is not going to do anything drastic if we board that ship. But if we did and by chance they did do something, and we or not willing to respond to their response, then we shouldn’t board. Why go to a fight if you are not going to fight? With this current president in office we might as well quit sharpening our swords sharpen our pencils for another tough UN resolution.

On a side note, anyone else notice how our Military sent in the USS John S McCain to intercept the weapons loaded ship. So every time Obama spoke about the situation he was forced to say USS John S McCain over and over? Lol Oh the games the military plays with presidents they don’t like.

[Draven]

Originally Posted by Fayle

I do hope you realize our debt has been there before America was official. It is just now people SEE the debt. Nothing will change, America is slowly paying off her debt, and we also have countries in debt to us, as well as we are constantly breaking deals and getting our debt cut. This will not be our downfall, the fascism in our corrupted government will. And even then we won't give up without a fight..

Actually we are making the debt worst, Bush did allot to increase that debt and Obama's spending money to fix the economy is just making it worse (he did double Bush's 8 year high in 3 months). If you break it down to the simplest of terms; all government projects, operations and jobs are paid for with tax dollars. If those tax dollars are taken from a job where the government pays the salary they are just getting part of their money back. So the government is paid only with taxes taken from non-government jobs & contracts (the private sector) & without those jobs the economy fails. So no the debt isn't being paid off at all. All this goes back to as you said the corruption in government...

Originally Posted by Fayle

But i do not believe China could just "crush" us in a pin stroke. First off why would we stroke a pin?

Because they could turn in their US Bonds early and crush the dollar and cause hyperinflation overnight. But yeah "pen stroke" not "pin stroke" I got yeah...

Originally Posted by Fayle

Second China has a MAJOR military presence, but that size is it's downfall. Resources to attack the United States would exceed what they can provide and troops would begin to question authority for China.

Exactly, why they let NK attack SK & Japan. We are already there so we have to be involved in the fight. More so, China can say bad things while North Korea goes on the attack and aid them behind closed doors. That reduces are reserve forces greatly and reserves and national guard are not the best of soldiers. Many/most have little more then basic military training, where as a regular soldier or marine can learn from more experienced members without actually going to the schools.

Originally Posted by Fayle

If that didn't happen the United States Defense system has gained ground and exceeded technological advancement predictions that we foresaw ten years ago.

Yes and remember how Russia paid off the debt from their Soviet USSR days. By selling that technological military advancements. Oh and China gets many of their weapons tech from Russia which is on par with us in many ways; except for fighter & strike fighter aircraft. I realize the US sails weapons to other countries as well but there is a know link between China, Russia, North Korea, Iran & several South American nations.

Maps of Russian New Military Weapons ? Future Weapons in Russia Map - Popular Mechanics
International Assessment and Strategy Center > Research > North Korea's New Missiles

Originally Posted by Fayle

You do seem to not realize why we are searching the vessel. North Korea announced a plan to send a nuclear warhead to hawaii within the next three months. We are being over-protective and making sure we can eliminate all threats before they happen. We can take down a Nuclear warhead over the ocean if it is from North Korea. But if it is closer or from one of our bases who knows what could happen. We need to stay on the Offensive to keep the U.S. running at full capacity.

Yes, but thats because North Korea has Russian Rockets and lauch systems and have cloned their own. They can just as easily put only a fraction of the fuel required (feul is massive limitation of North Korea) to send the rocks a certain distance and fill in the rest of the testing with calculations. What we see in the news as "failed attempts" could just be rationed test fuels & they could be full capable of reaching Hawaii or farther.

We don't get the whole picture picture from the media or the government & I'm a big fan of the "prepare for the worst but hope for the best" philosophy. So I'll leave any assumptions on their weakness & our strength to be seen with a pestimistic light. A war in South Korea would be a ground/naval war and North Korea has a million man Army. More so, thay can carry a nuke into the country under the DMZ, they have more tunnels we haven't found yet...

[Draven]

http://www.terrorism.com/documents/T...restricted.pdf

I found the above document which was translated from a Chinese thesis on defeating the technological superiority of nations like the US. Admittedly in the Introduction you see tactics like hacking websites, terrorism, urban warfare, media propaganda & so are just suggested methods of defeating US technological superiority...

Thought this might shed some light on Chinese frame of mind & goes along with allot of what I was saying if anyone cares lol...

[shetlan]

Originally Posted by Draven

http://www.terrorism.com/documents/T...restricted.pdf

I found the above document which was translated from a Chinese thesis on defeating the technological superiority of nations like the US. Admittedly in the Introduction you see tactics like hacking websites, terrorism, urban warfare, media propaganda & so are just suggested methods of defeating US technological superiority...

Thought this might shed some light on Chinese frame of mind & goes along with allot of what I was saying if anyone cares lol...

One of the major threats the NSA has been concerned about as of late is cyber terrorism. A virus got into the NSA system a few months ago. Somebody loaded the virus onto a USB thumbdrive and dropped in the NSA's parking lot. When someone found it, they plugged it into their computer so they could figure out who it belonged to - BAM - the virus was in.

[Draven]

True and China one of the major internet censorship nations has had "hackers" attack DOD computers and of course China is investigating this. I find allot of interesting similarities course it could be all tin foil material; but so was US secret projects to develop super weapons unitl we dropped an Atomic bomb on Japan. However it just adds to view that China should not be trusted & will side with NK. I'd hate to see a worm shut down all out internal security technology; commo and such centralized through the NSA & have a nuke hit us at the same time, plus terrorist strikes across the US restricted to urban centers as the report suggests is the best way to beat US technological superiority...

[otisct]

look we all know that NK has tested nukes and from what ive heard...(im not sure if its accurate or not)... is that they are about the same size as the nukes we dropped on japan in WWII..if so Kim Jong Ill isn't (atleast he shouldnt be) stupid enough to launch one at us since oure defense system is set up to where if a nuke is launched at us nukes get launched back at them and ours are several time more powerful than theres and we have waaaaaay more than they do it is completely idiotic for NK to have even threatend us. We all also know China would defend NK... to a certain degree but we can definitly destroy chinas nukes before they can even launch some at us beacuse they are so fuckin stupid and keep all of there nukes above ground and all in the same place.

Any other thoughts?

[Steve_TPF]

Originally Posted by otisct

We all also know China would defend NK... to a certain degree but we can definitly destroy chinas nukes before they can even launch some at us beacuse they are so fuckin stupid and keep all of there nukes above ground and all in the same place.

What on earth gave you that idea? China's nukes are widely distributed.

[CyberWar]

It is in fact the majority of US strategic nuclear arms that lies stationary within silos, save for a portion carried on subs. Chinese have adopted the Russian system of mobile launchers that frequently relocate. Besides, only a fraction of their nuclear arms is mounted on missiles and ready for launch at any one time - others are stashed away at secure caches just for such an event.

Besides, to destroy Chinese nukes, you would first have to get there - nuclear strike is not an option, as it would be a political suicide, and China has adopted a strict no-first-strike policy, removing any potential excuse. And getting through their air defenses isn't as easy as it may sound even with stealth bombers. A stealth bomber isn't actually "invisible" on the radar, but creates a kind of void in the static background by absorbing all radiowaves. An experienced SAM operator can set his machine to target these voids that indicate approaching bombers - even older design SAMs. Chinese, however, have built a variant of the new Russian S-400 long-range SAMs that can successfully track a stealth bomber within 100 km range.

Not to mention that the whole US - China war scenario is unreal. The Western world depends on Chinese production, while China still needs us for the technologies. Neither USA or China would be interested in breaking down the world economy by starting a war.

As for North Korea, I think a country that starved half of its population just to build a few half-assed nukes can be hardly considered a threat. South Korea is just about the only nation that should rightfully be concerned, but even that is to a limited degree - NK will never attack, as aggression on their part would warrant China to leave them to be torn apart by the rest of the world.

[otisct]

oops sorry steve guess my history teacher is a dumbass lol my mistake i stand corrected

[Draven]

Originally Posted by CyberWar

It is in fact the majority of US strategic nuclear arms that lies stationary within silos, save for a portion carried on subs. Chinese have adopted the Russian system of mobile launchers that frequently relocate. Besides, only a fraction of their nuclear arms is mounted on missiles and ready for launch at any one time - others are stashed away at secure caches just for such an event.

Besides, to destroy Chinese nukes, you would first have to get there - nuclear strike is not an option, as it would be a political suicide, and China has adopted a strict no-first-strike policy, removing any potential excuse. And getting through their air defenses isn't as easy as it may sound even with stealth bombers. A stealth bomber isn't actually "invisible" on the radar, but creates a kind of void in the static background by absorbing all radiowaves. An experienced SAM operator can set his machine to target these voids that indicate approaching bombers - even older design SAMs. Chinese, however, have built a variant of the new Russian S-400 long-range SAMs that can successfully track a stealth bomber within 100 km range.

Not to mention that the whole US - China war scenario is unreal. The Western world depends on Chinese production, while China still needs us for the technologies. Neither USA or China would be interested in breaking down the world economy by starting a war.

As for North Korea, I think a country that starved half of its population just to build a few half-assed nukes can be hardly considered a threat. South Korea is just about the only nation that should rightfully be concerned, but even that is to a limited degree - NK will never attack, as aggression on their part would warrant China to leave them to be torn apart by the rest of the world.

Actually that not exactly true for stealth, stealths do absorb radar waves but it only reduced the radar signature. As for China being dependant on us for technology; the US and China both have their technology manufactured in India, Taiwan, South Korea & Japan, except for highly classified stuff that China has no access to.

As far as the "Global Economy" don't let that fool you, Russia, the EU & China are pushing for a global currency which would remove the US from the top of the world economy. That would make a war with the US very possible & less destructive to the global economy. I was stationed in South Korea & we had border skirmishes, tunnels dug under the DMZ & terrorist attacks by North Koreas while there. Hell we even had North Korean propaganda fliers and pamplets show up on US military posts. Don't let "Old World" thinking abscure your view of that "Change" everyone voted for...

[CyberWar]

Still, I really doubt any side would resort to nukes, and even if they did, they would be largely low-yield tactical nuke strikes against military strongholds. There is simply no point in vaporizing a city full of industry and potential subjects that would later pay taxes and produce goods to you - or at least you could trade with them at very profitable terms after they eventually capitulate.

As for stealths, that is about how they look on radar screen - voids rather than blips, at least on older radars. At least SAM operators who have been training with NATO (or facing them in battle) report it so. Problem is not in detecting and targeting the stealth bomber, but keeping the missile on course, since missile seekers have difficulty detecting it, and the target pilots will obviously not content themselves with just stealth hull as the one and only countermeasure.

[Draven]

Acording to my manual on using personal radar guided weapons systems; a stealth does reduces the radar signature (kinda like how a silencer reduces but does not eliminate sound from firing a weapon). A S10 pick up has a larger radar signature then a F16, though an F117 is bigger in size. The rader signature of a B2 Stealth Bombs is only slightly larger then the Radar Signature of a medium sized bird. Some older Radar systems can't even identify human size objects (paratroopers). Thats why they went to IR strobe & thermal back ups to older Radar systems...

HowStuffWorks "How does stealth technology work?"

[CyberWar]

However, newest radar systems, such as Russian S-400, have the capability to amplify and filter this negligible radar cross-section to accurately recognize and target a stealth bomber at 100 km. The precise mechanism of action in these sensors remains a guarded secret, but fact is that stealth bombers no longer represent the threat they used to.

As for IR signature, no jet-propelled aircraft (or any vehicle running on some form of internal combustion) can dampen that sufficiently. However, IR sensors are relatively short ranged as atmosphere absorbs much of IR emissions at long range - while IR sensors will indeed pick up incoming stealths at quite a distance, that distance may be already well within range of missiles and smart bombs carried aboard them.

[shetlan]

Originally Posted by CyberWar

However, newest radar systems, such as Russian S-400, have the capability to amplify and filter this negligible radar cross-section to accurately recognize and target a stealth bomber at 100 km. The precise mechanism of action in these sensors remains a guarded secret, but fact is that stealth bombers no longer represent the threat they used to.

The US altered the formulas used in the radar absorbent coatings to compensate for the advent of such new tracking technology. The new coatings where put in place just before the invasion of Iraq, to deal with the potential use of new tracking systems by Iraqi forces.

That aside, stealth bombers will soon be phased out anyway. UAVs like the Predator can do the same job for alot less money and without risking the lives of pilots.

Additionally, cruise missiles launched from subs are the current long range weapons solution.